If the Vegas Golden Knights were to create a Mount Rushmore of their franchise legends, Jonathan Marchessault’s face would be the first one carved in. For seven seasons, Marchessault gave his all to the team, becoming a cornerstone of their identity and success.
The Golden Knights’ general manager, Kelly McCrimmon, and the front office are known for their no-nonsense approach to managing the team. No player is untouchable, whether they’ve won the Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe Trophy, Jack Adams Award, Jennings Trophy, or Vezina Trophy. This ruthless efficiency is why it was particularly painful for fans to see Marchessault leave in the opening minutes of free agency.
Golden Knights fans are no strangers to saying goodbye to beloved players like Nate Schmidt, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Reilly Smith. The team has even seen three different head coaches in their first six seasons. The departures of Schmidt, Fleury, and Smith, while tough, ultimately opened up new opportunities and improved the team’s long-term outlook.
It’s crucial to acknowledge that McCrimmon and his team have been right far more often than they’ve been wrong. Over the past seven seasons, McCrimmon has established himself as one of the league’s best general managers. The Golden Knights’ record includes a Stanley Cup championship, two Western Conference Final championships, three Pacific Division championships, and playoff appearances in six out of seven seasons. These achievements are hard to overlook.
However, the decision to let Marchessault go remains perplexing. McCrimmon’s insistence on sticking to his contract terms came at a particularly unfortunate time. Just a month after acquiring Noah Hanifin from the Calgary Flames, the Golden Knights signed him to an eight-year extension worth $58.8 million. Similarly, Tomas Hertl, brought in from the San Jose Sharks at the trade deadline, received a six-year contract worth $40.5 million. Mark Stone and Alex Pietrangelo also have long-term contracts that extend into their mid-to-late thirties.
The sticking point in the negotiations with Marchessault was the contract term. The Nashville Predators quickly signed him to a five-year deal worth $27.5 million, which will keep him under contract until he is 38 years old. McCrimmon cited data that suggested a five-year deal for Marchessault wasn’t justifiable. Many fans, however, would be curious to see the data that supported extending Hertl for such a lengthy term.
Marchessault had a career year at 33, and while some regression is expected, his performance level should easily justify a $5.5 million average annual value (AAV). It’s reasonable to expect Marchessault to maintain a point production level between 50 and 60 points over the next three seasons, and even a 40-point floor in the fourth and fifth years of his contract wouldn’t be outlandish.
Considering the salary cap, Marchessault’s $5.5 million AAV would represent 6.3% of the available cap space for the 2024-25 season, which is projected to rise to $88 million. By the 2025-26 season, with another expected cap increase, his salary would take up less than six percent of the cap. If the cap continues to grow, it could approach $100 million by the final years of Marchessault’s contract, making his deal even more manageable.
Marchessault’s departure makes it difficult for McCrimmon and the front office to convince fans that the long-term outlook justified not extending his contract, especially after seeing Hanifin’s eight-year extension and taking on Hertl’s lengthy deal.
Despite McCrimmon’s track record of smart decisions, the timing of his hard stance on Marchessault’s contract terms seems peculiar. Marchessault was the heartbeat of the organization, and his exit left a significant void, both on the ice and in the locker room.
In an attempt to fill the gap, McCrimmon traded Paul Cotter and a third-round draft pick to the New Jersey Devils for forward Alexander Holtz and goaltender Akira Schmid. Holtz, a 22-year-old, scored 16 goals and 28 points in 82 games for the Devils last season. Additionally, Victor Olofsson was acquired via free agency. While Olofsson has scored 20 or more goals three times in his career, he managed only 15 points in 51 games for the Buffalo Sabres last season. There is hope that Olofsson can rekindle some chemistry with Jack Eichel from their Buffalo days.
Pavel Dorofeyev and Brendan Brisson are also expected to step up and make significant contributions in the wake of Marchessault’s departure. However, it’s clear that much needs to go right for the Golden Knights to replace the goals and points lost with Marchessault’s exit. Even if Brisson, Dorofeyev, Olofsson, and Holtz manage to collectively account for the 40 goals lost, the team will still feel a considerable void in terms of leadership and presence in the locker room.
In summary, while McCrimmon and the Golden Knights’ front office have an impressive track record of smart decisions, the choice to let Marchessault go remains a contentious and emotional point for fans. The coming seasons will reveal whether this decision was another stroke of genius or a rare misstep.