For the upcoming 2024-25 NHL season, it appears that the Toronto Maple Leafs might once again find themselves starting the playoffs on the road. My prediction is that they will secure a Wild Card spot.
Predicting the exact standings of NHL teams during the offseason is challenging. It’s similar to predicting stock market movements: while some assumptions can be made, combining quantitative data and gut feelings often leads to mixed results. Despite this unpredictability, the moves and missed opportunities during the offseason suggest that the Maple Leafs are on a path to a Wild Card position. I am confident, though, that the Leafs will make the playoffs.
The real question is: where will the Maple Leafs finish the regular season? Although I have previously stated that the Leafs have a strong chance of winning their division, everything must go perfectly for that to happen.
For the Leafs to clinch the division, several things need to align. Their goaltending must be outstanding, the defense needs to be robust, and the offense must be highly productive. If Auston Matthews scores 70 goals and Mitch Marner and William Nylander each surpass 100 points, the Leafs could be an exceptionally dominant team. But, that’s assuming everything goes perfectly.
Potential Pitfalls for the Leafs
Let’s consider scenarios where things do not go as planned. If the Leafs have to rely heavily on Matt Murray for many starts, or if John Tavares experiences a significant decline in production and can no longer hold a top-six spot, the team could struggle. Even worse would be injuries to key players like Matthews, Nylander, or Marner, or if the defense falters with Chris Tanev spending more time injured than playing.
These scenarios are quite plausible, and the likelihood of at least one occurring is high. If any of these issues arise, the Maple Leafs might no longer be dominant in the Atlantic Division. In such a case, they would likely vie for a Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, especially if teams like Boston play well, Florida continues its championship form, Detroit becomes a playoff contender, and one of Ottawa or Buffalo turns things around. Meanwhile, if Tampa Bay maintains its competitive edge, the Leafs’ path to a Wild Card spot seems more likely.
A Potential Upside
Interestingly, securing a Wild Card spot might benefit the Leafs. They could face a team from the Metropolitan Division, such as the New York Rangers or the Carolina Hurricanes, in the first round of the playoffs. Avoiding an initial matchup against teams like Tampa Bay or Boston might give the Leafs a better chance to overcome their postseason hurdles.
In summary, while the Toronto Maple Leafs are expected to make the playoffs, various factors suggest they might do so via a Wild Card spot. This outcome might actually provide them with a strategic advantage, offering a potentially smoother path in the postseason.
