Jesse Hogan is on the verge of achieving something remarkable in the AFL: becoming one of the most accurate Coleman Medal winners in the past 20 years. With a game remaining against the Western Bulldogs in round 24, Hogan has already kicked 67 goals from 101 shots this season, with 23 behinds and 11 shots that failed to score. This impressive performance puts him 10 goals ahead of two-time Coleman Medalist Charlie Curnow with just one game left to play.
If Hogan maintains his accuracy in the upcoming match, he will be the most precise Coleman winner since Champion Data began recording total shots on goal in 2002. Only two other players, Matthew Lloyd in 2003 (71.9%) and Fraser Gehrig in 2004 (70.3%), have had better accuracy rates when winning the Coleman Medal. Hogan’s current accuracy stands at 66.3%, a notable achievement given that he has taken fewer shots on goal compared to most other winners.
Hogan’s efficiency is especially impressive when compared to past Coleman Medalists. Of the 22 winners since 2002, only Tom Hawkins, who had 73 shots in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, has had fewer attempts than Hogan. Hogan’s 101 shots are significantly lower than Lance Franklin’s 207 shots during his famous 2008 season, where Franklin kicked 102 goals with an accuracy of just 49.3%. Franklin is also the only Coleman winner since 2002 to have an accuracy rate of less than 50%, which he did three times.
Looking back even further, Hogan’s accuracy compares favorably with legendary goal-kickers from earlier eras. While comprehensive data on scoring shots before 2002 is not available, Hogan’s goals-to-behinds ratio of 74.44% ranks him fourth among all Coleman winners in the past 50 years. Only Matthew Lloyd in 2003 (75.61%) and 2001 (74.47%), along with Tony Lockett in 1998 (75.35%), had better accuracy.
Even legends like Jason Dunstall, Gary Ablett Sr., and Doug Wade, who sometimes kicked double the number of goals Hogan has this year, did not achieve a goals-to-behinds ratio above 70%. The most accurate Coleman-winning season on record belongs to Peter Hudson, who in 1970 kicked 146 goals and 44 behinds for an accuracy rate of 76.84%, the highest in the history of the game.
Hogan’s season is not just about individual goal-scoring. Among the 75 players who have kicked 20 or more goals this year, Hogan ranks ninth in score involvements with 146. His ability to involve teammates in play has been noted by former players like Matthew Lloyd, who praised Hogan for his unselfishness and all-around play.
Drafted as the No. 2 pick in the 2012 mini-draft, Hogan’s journey to the top has been anything but straightforward, with stints at Melbourne, Fremantle, and now the Giants. He is on track to become just the second player, after Scott Cummings in 1999, to win the Coleman Medal with his third club, cementing his place as one of the most accurate and efficient goal-kickers in AFL history.
