Aaron Nola continued to struggle with the long ball in the Phillies’ loss to the Pirates, surrendering two more home runs. He has now allowed 19 homers in 85 innings this season, with opponents hitting multiple home runs off him in each of his last four outings.
Despite his inflated 6.04 ERA, advanced metrics paint a more encouraging picture. Nola owns a 3.97 xFIP and a matching 3.97 SIERA, both of which account for unusually high home run rates. However, his tendency to give up home runs has become a recurring issue, as he has recorded a home-run-to-fly-ball rate above 15% in each of the last four seasons.
Now 33, Nola has been a key figure in Philadelphia’s starting rotation since making his MLB debut in 2015, earning a reputation as one of the league’s most dependable workhorses. But after posting a 6.01 ERA through 17 starts in 2025 and continuing to struggle this season, questions are beginning to emerge about his long-term effectiveness.
Reflecting on his difficult campaign, Nola admitted it has been one of the toughest stretches of his career. He said he has always taken pride in being a reliable innings-eater for the Phillies, but acknowledged that he has rarely been able to pitch into the sixth inning this season, making the year especially frustrating.
